The only way is up: although the climb could be slow
2009 was a year almost everyone will be very happy to forget. But dig beneath the surface and it actually wasn’t quite as bad as it could have been – though that’s a hard thing to say to anyone who lost their job. So how is 2010 set to play out? Will it be the year of the bounce-back or the double dip? Will the green shoots flourish or wither on the stony ground. We’ve been talking to our consultants, our clients and other industry experts to get their predictions for the road ahead.
Retention will be key
A quarter of all employees are already actively looking for new jobs. On top of this, 40% said they would ideally like to change jobs within the next year. As a result, 2010 will see many employers renew their focus on retention strategies. Those employees that have stayed put for fear of leaping into an uncertain job market are likely to start looking around again as the economy recovers. The best employers will redouble their retention efforts, focusing on tactics such as strong employer brands, clear career paths and competitive benefits. Realistically, those employers that turned the retention tap off completely during the downturn will find it difficult to persuade people to stay if they feel the grass could be greener elsewhere.
The return of the graduates
We expect to see employers return to the graduate recruitment market in 2010, sweeping up the best talent from among 2008, 2009 and 2010’s graduates, especially later in the year as the pool of available experienced talent diminishes in response to a thawing of recruitment freezes.
Flexible working
As generation Y becomes more prevalent in the workforce, and technology makes traditional office-based role less relevant, flexible working practices will continue to grow in 2010. This will benefit both employers and employees, with flexibility helping to get more out of individual employees on both productivity and emotional levels, while giving organisations greater capacity to react to any given demand.
It’s a work pattern that will also help continue to fuel the rise of the freelancer – a feature that the CBI has identified as being a key characteristic of the future labour market.
Training and development
2010 will likely see a renewed focus on training and development. The demands of the modern workplace are changing fast, with 2009 seeing the picture move forward yet again. Growing numbers of the workforce are open to retraining entirely for new roles – our own Employment Study showed 47% of professionals would retrain if the opportunity came.
The key to this training will be drawing a clear link to commercial benefit. Proving the return of investment for training will help shape the types of opportunities on offer.
Key sectors
Banking and financial services was among the first sectors to be hit by the recession and has witnessed some of the most high profile redundancies in 2009. 2010 looks a great deal brighter, with many employers in the sector starting to recruit again. Skilled front office professionals will be in great demand with firms seeking project management and direct asset management skills. With the anticipated changes in FSA regulations, regulatory, control and compliance are also on the wish list creating demand for lawyers in this area too.
An essential re-focus on employee retention has already heralded a renewed demand for communications professionals and this trend looks set to continue into 2010. Neglected intranets will be revamped in a bid to cost-effectively disseminate employer brands, creating a demand for online communications specialists.
We expect to see HR departments revisiting some of the more strategic areas of their work, around resource planning and engagement, with more enlightened procurement expertise taking costly process and transactional work out of the HR arena.
Social media has been a topical issue throughout 2009, with many organisations tentatively testing online networking waters. Yet unclear is the full impact on the 2010 job market – will we see the creation of more specialist social media roles Evidence indicates that firms still finding their proverbial social networking feet will expect their general marketers to keep hold of the reins as we enter 2010.
With fewer people choosing the LPC as the route of entry to the legal profession, and firms looking to manage costs for clients, we are already seeing an increased use of paralegals, the “unsung army” of the legal profession. And, of course, if the property market starts to move the need for conveyancers will be immediate.
IT and procurement are two sectors likely to see a significant increase in activity as companies look to find new ways to grow and more efficient ways of working with suppliers. With business success increasingly reliant on IT supply chain management – delivering more and more for less and less; delivering measurable business benefits – the most critical skill of all will be project management.
New skills in demand
There’s little doubt that the entire economy has undergone fundamental changes in the last 12-18 months. That has meant a shift in the types of skills required across most sectors. In 2010, many traditional roles are likely to change, with some even disappearing. Commercial minds, communication skills, business partnering abilities – all are likely to become central parts of many functions in 2010. The challenge for both employers and employees is to create environments in which people can develop these skills effectively.
One bold prediction is that the traditional management consultancy may have had its day. A notable aspect of 2009 was organisations’ focus on costs. Many businesses realised that they could deliver their business strategies without bringing in the ‘big guns’ from the management consultancy community. 2010 will see many major projects put on hold in 2009 come back to life. We suspect that there will be an increasing trend for employers to use interim professionals to staff major projects in preference to using management consultancies.
Happiness
The picture for happiness in the workplace has fluctuated widely in 2009. The overall direction for 2010 is likely to be tied closely to the strength of the economic recovery, and the way in which employers react to it. The early signs are positive, and if current trends persist then the average professional is likely to be a happy one by the end of next year.
Overall, we predict a slow but steady recovery, with many employers unfreezing hires and beginning a return to normal operations. However, normality has changed: many organisations have learned to live leaner in the past year. While they won’t remain stripped back to the bone in 2010, the World of Work in the coming year will be about efficient and effective operations, using slim teams of the best talent, coupled with better uses of technology and processes to deliver organisational success.
The threat to jobs in the UK probably hovers most over the public sector, though it could be 2011 at the earliest before any new government’s actions on reducing the debt burden even begin to come to fruition.
